Off Keel doesn't owe me any money. I've played this 11 yr old grey gelding pacer for years and seen him cross the wire first in a good number of his races. However, there are times when he's not a good bet, although people still play him then. Not me. I know when he's not likely to come in and I lay off in those races. Even when he was at his peak, there were some situations when his post position or the class of the race put him at a disadvantage. That was when I watched the race and - more times than not - he finished out of the money.
I use the Trackmaster™ harness programs and highly recommend that you do too if you play the harness races. I think their class ratings are better than the on-track programs and they give you so much more information. But back to Off Keel and how he can help with greyhound handicapping... This year, Off Keel has been running well at a class rating of up to 75. That's the CR of the race, not his speed rating or class rating in the race.
When he gets up over a 75 CR, he's a lot less likely to come in. In fact, he hasn't won above that level since May 5th. Another thing that has a big effect on whether or not he comes in is post position. He runs at half mile tracks in Bangor and Scarborough, both of which favor the horse from the 1 through the 5, like most half-mile tracks. Put him outside the 5 post, and he doesn't win.
Harness fans remember that Off Keel was a very good horse when he was younger. They know that he's still a horse to be reckoned with now. But they don't remember or don't know the information about class rating and post position, so they bet on him no matter the class of the race or his post position. Then he doesn't come in and they go off him and he slides down to a CR 75 race and his odds are good and I have him and he wins.
There are a few other horses that are good bets at times and bad bets at other times at the local tracks and at the simulcast tracks too. I keep a list and play them when they're in a favorable situation. I do the same thing with dogs and you can do it too.
It's a little harder, because most greyhound programs don't have class ratings so you have to use grade. When you're handicapping, notice dogs that are always moving up into a higher grade, but never win in that grade. That's their class ceiling just like a CR 75 is Off Keel's class ceiling, this season anyway. Notice dogs who never come in when they're in certain post positions, but do come in when they're in other post positions.
Keep a list and you'll notice that the more you look for these dogs, the more you'll be able to pick them out. They're spot plays, of course, because they have a very good chance of coming in because of a certain situation. Spot plays are my favorite way to make money at the dog track and at the horse track too. In fact, I like them so much that I'm writing a book all about spot plays at the greyhound, thoroughbred and harness tracks. It should be out in about six weeks, if I can lay off playing the races long enough to finish it.
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